Market Update - 01/28/2026

Mortgage rates didn’t catch any meaningful relief following today’s Fed announcement, and that outcome was largely expected by analysts and lenders alike. Both the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference reinforced the message that rate cuts are not imminent—a theme that continues to shape buyer and seller behavior across Omaha and the Midwest.

Powell was especially clear that the Fed is not even attempting to signal when the next rate cut might occur, noting that policymakers believe they are well positioned at current levels. His rationale was summed up succinctly: “There is a clear improvement in the outlook for economic growth. This starts the year off on a solid footing.” For Midwest markets, where economic growth has been steady but not overheated, this signals that borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated longer than many hopeful buyers had anticipated.

As a result, the market is now assuming that during at least the final two Fed meetings under Powell’s leadership, rate cuts are highly unlikely barring a significant shift in economic data. For Omaha-area buyers, this reinforces the need to plan purchases around today’s rates rather than waiting for near-term relief that may not materialize.

Any speculation about potential tension between the Federal Reserve and the President also failed to move markets. When pressed on political dynamics or whether he intends to remain with the Fed after his term as Chair ends, Powell consistently deflected, saying, “There is a time and a place for those conversations, but that isn’t today.” Markets took the message at face value and moved on.

With that, the bond market—and by extension mortgage rates—now has clearer guidance on the Fed’s stance. Unless inflation cools more quickly than expected or the labor market shows meaningful weakness, the Fed appears comfortable holding rates steady for an extended period. In the Midwest housing market, that clarity matters: it favors buyers who are focused on long-term affordability and negotiation, rather than timing the market for rate cuts that may still be many months away.