Market Update - 03/26/2026

As we head into the weekend, most of the movement in mortgage rates is being driven by global events—specifically rising tensions involving Iran. While that might feel far removed from day-to-day life in Omaha, it’s actually having a direct impact on borrowing costs here at home.

Earlier in the week, markets briefly improved after talk of possible peace negotiations. But that optimism didn’t last long. Since then, both stocks and bonds have been trending lower, which has pushed mortgage rates higher again.

So what’s the connection to your home purchase?
It largely comes down to oil prices and inflation.

Oil has been extremely volatile this week—jumping up, dropping, and then climbing again. Just a month ago, oil was around $66 per barrel. Now it’s been bouncing near $110. When oil prices rise, it tends to push inflation higher, and higher inflation usually leads to higher mortgage rates.

For buyers in the Omaha market, that’s the key takeaway: global instability is translating into higher borrowing costs locally.

There’s also been a shift in expectations around the Federal Reserve. Not long ago, markets were expecting rate cuts in 2026. Now, there’s about a 50/50 chance the Fed could actually raise rates instead. That said, this outlook is still very fluid. The Fed is closely watching the job market, and upcoming employment data could play a big role in what happens next.

Where does this leave mortgage rates right now?
Over the past month, rates have risen noticeably—by about half a percent on average. That may not sound like much, but it can significantly impact your monthly payment and purchasing power.

What this means for Midwest & Omaha homebuyers:

• Rates are more volatile than usual – and can change quickly based on global news

• Higher oil prices = upward pressure on mortgage rates

• Waiting could be risky if rates continue climbing

• But opportunities still exist, especially if the market stabilizes or economic data softens

The big picture: while uncertainty is driving short-term rate increases, this isn’t a permanent trend. Markets are reacting quickly to headlines right now, and things could shift just as fast in the coming weeks.

If you’re considering buying in Omaha or the surrounding areas, the best move is to stay informed and be ready to act when the right opportunity presents itself.