Market Update - 05/11/2026

As we move through another important week for financial markets, many in the Omaha and Midwest housing market are keeping a close eye on changes coming out of the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term officially ends Friday, May 15th, and all signs point toward Kevin Warsh stepping into the role shortly thereafter.

For homebuyers, homeowners, and anyone watching mortgage rates, leadership changes at the Fed can influence market expectations and interest rate trends. One of the biggest anticipated shifts under Warsh is expected to be less forward guidance from the Fed. During Powell’s tenure, markets became accustomed to frequent commentary and detailed messaging from Fed officials. A quieter, less predictable Fed could create more day-to-day volatility in mortgage rates as markets react more heavily to incoming economic data.

Last week’s employment report came in stronger than expected, with more than 115,000 jobs added compared to forecasts closer to 55,000. Healthcare continued to be a major driver of hiring, while government employment remained softer. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, showing the labor market continues to demonstrate resilience despite signs of slower overall economic growth.

For buyers and sellers across Omaha and the Midwest, labor market stability remains an encouraging sign. A healthy employment environment typically supports housing demand, especially in markets like Omaha that continue to benefit from steady population growth, strong healthcare employment, and a relatively affordable cost of living compared to many coastal markets.

At the same time, global events continue to influence mortgage rates and inflation expectations. The ongoing tensions involving Iran and rising oil prices remain a major focus for investors. Oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel, while gas prices nationally have moved above $4.50 per gallon. Higher energy costs can place upward pressure on inflation, which is important because inflation remains one of the largest drivers of mortgage rate movement.

This week’s upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will likely play a major role in determining near-term rate direction. Markets will be watching both month-over-month inflation data, which could reflect the recent spike in energy prices, and year-over-year figures as the economy moves further beyond the initial tariff impacts seen over the past year.

For buyers in the Omaha area, the takeaway remains largely the same: mortgage rates may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but inventory levels across much of the Midwest have gradually improved, giving buyers more opportunities and negotiating power than we saw over the past several years. While uncertainty in the broader economy can create temporary volatility, the Omaha housing market continues to be supported by strong local fundamentals and long-term affordability advantages compared to many larger metro areas.