Market Update 11/21/2025

Market volatility was the theme across the board this week, and the Omaha housing market wasn’t immune to the ripple effects. Nationally, stocks continued a sharp sell-off—particularly in AI, tech, and other high-growth sectors—while the bond market stayed relatively steady as investors waited for Thursday’s September employment report. The 10-year Treasury held in the 4.10%–4.15% range for most of the week, which helped keep mortgage rate sheets in Omaha fairly consistent despite the turbulence in equities.

The jobs report, however, delivered mixed signals. While total job gains came in 50,000–60,000 above expectations, most of that growth was concentrated in just a few sectors. That has added to the market narrative that broader economic softness may be developing beneath the surface. Unemployment also ticked up 0.1%, reaching its highest level in about four years—something buyers and sellers in Omaha should keep an eye on, as employment trends often influence local homebuying activity.

Another curveball: the October jobs data, which had already been delayed, will now be released as part of the November report on December 16th, a full week after the December 10th Federal Reserve meeting. CPI data will also arrive on December 10th. That means the Fed will be making its final rate decision of 2025 with less information than usual—not ideal for anyone hoping for a December rate cut that could bring mortgage rates down for Omaha buyers.

Earlier this week, the market had largely written off the likelihood of a December rate cut, with odds falling to around 30%. But that shifted this morning when voting Fed member John Williams signaled that a cut is still possible. Both stocks and bonds quickly rallied, pushing expectations back up to about 65%. Mortgage rates improved slightly heading into the weekend—welcome news for Omaha buyers who have been waiting for some relief.

Big Takeaway for Omaha:
Volatility is increasing, and we’ll likely continue to see bumps in mortgage rate pricing as we approach the December 10th Fed meeting. Buyers and sellers in the Omaha market should stay flexible—rate movements may be quick, and opportunities could be short-lived.